Part 2
For this part let us assume that the date today is 23rd August, 2021.
On 23rd August 2021, which was the last date to participate in the buyback as 26th is the record date. The price was trading in the range of 110-111. We again reassess the odds.
As per us, It make no sense to participate under general shareholder as acceptance is 2, we can enter under small shareholders with these odds where the acceptance is 9. However, you may have a different opinion and we would love to know the same.
Conclusion
Considering the payoff matrix of small shareholder, we are allocating 2-3 percent of portfolio. As break even price is in +_5% range of Assumed post buyback price. The allocation remains less as we believe that the predictive power of model in such cases is weak where there is no clear cut answer. We have less confidence in our model in such circumstances.
Please consult us or some other Investment advisor for detailed advice regarding the same. This is in no way an investment advice or buy/sell recommendation. It is just a case study of a live situation which we have done. It involves its own risk (In terms of allocation or loss). We may change our mind before you may know (Or sell). So please if you want to do such situations, please consult us or any investment advisor.It is just a case study for future learning. We may be wrong and make mistakes. It is ongoing.Even we do not know what will be the result of this particular situation, all we are doing is following a process (Which may or may not be successful).
Argha Investment Advisers 